The Man Who Predicted the Housing Market Crash

Vex
4 min readNov 22, 2020

Dr. Michael Burry of Scion Asset Management LLC had predicted the housing crisis way ahead of its time while many frenzy investors were still busy buying and selling CDO’s and making a hefty profit by flipping contracts like houses.
Ever since then, Dr. Burry has been a key figure in the US financial markets. His latest 13-F filing reveals massive bets placed on a handful of companies a pattern similar to the months prior to the 2008 crisis.
Even though the firm’s equity holdings are sitting at $91 million, the firm’s portfolio is in fact worth slightly over $315 million.
During the first quarter of 2020, he held diversified positions in multiple stocks such as GameStop, Jack in the Box, Qorvo, Maxar Technologies, and Facebook.
However, post the second quarter he readjusted the portfolio by acquiring smaller portions in various other stocks in addition to purchasing massive amounts of “call options” on various companies.
According to Investopedia, “call options are financial contracts that give the option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock, bond, commodity or other asset or instrument at a specified price within a specific time period.
The stock, bond, or commodity is called the underlying asset. A call buyer profits when the underlying asset increases in price”.
In general, an option is a contract between two investors. One of them is writing the option, and the other is buying the call option.
For example, if the option seller is explicitly writing calls on Tesla the contract will state that if “Tesla’s shares reach a stock price higher than X by a specific date, then you can buy the Tesla shares off of me for a strike price of X”.
An advantage for the buyer is that he/she can choose not to exercise this right if the stock is trading at a price lower than X.
But in case the stock price surges above X, he/she can buy the shares for X, and subsequently, sell it in the markets for a higher price resulting in a profit.
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With regards to Dr.Burry, his 13-F filings didn’t disclose the strike price and expiry dates for all the long positions he had acquired. So, it is correct to say that they own $91 million in stocks but the firm’s “total long position” is worth slightly over $315 million inclusive of all the “long calls”.

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